Expert picks, best bets for PGA Tour golf this week

Breaking down our John Deere Classic picks and best bets for this week at TPC Deere Run with our PGA Tour expert picks for Top 10, winner and more. 

Put the tractors down on the teebox, it’s time for the John Deere Classic as the PGA Tour heads to TPC Deere Run in Silvis, IL this week before making a big trip overseas. Because of that, the field this week for this event is less than stellar with Webb Simpson and Adam Hadwin installed as the favorites, which should tell you what you need to know about this week.

The Travelers Championship looked promising for us through 54 holes but a Sunday collapse for Patrick Cantlay, my outright pick, sunk our chances of a huge week. We still cashed Brian Harman for a Top 10 at +450, which was tremendous value, but the rest of our picks left something to be desired. Onward and upward is the only way, though.

For this week, I’m definitely scaling back unit size because a weak field means increased volatility, so we’re handicapping this field with intentions to profit, but also mitigating risk. So with that, let’s see what we have with our PGA Tour expert picks for the John Deere Classic.

Note: All odds are courtesy of WynnBet. For more betting picks and advice, check out BetSided.

PGA Tour expert picks for John Deere Classic: Winner, Top 10, One and Done

Pick to Win the John Deere Classic: Denny McCarthy (+2800)

Again, this field is less than stellar, so you have to find something and ride with it. For me, I’m looking for players who have some good results at TPC Deere Run, are playing well recently, and have been hot with the putter. That combination led me to Denny McCarthy. Yes, he missed the cut at this event in the last two starts but was Top 40 the two previous years. More importantly, he’s been hot lately, leading the field in Strokes Gained: Putting over the last 20 rounds at over 1.3 per round. Prior to last week’s missed cut, he finished T5 and T7 in his previous two starts. I love for him to keep that rolling and get a victory this week with a hot putter in a birdie fest.

Top 10 pick for John Deere Classic: Nick Hardy (+350)

Don’t look now, but 26-year-old Nick Hardy has been scorching as of late for a relative unknown in the larger ranks of the PGA Tour. He’s played the last three weeks and finished T35 in Canada, T14 at the US Open, and then T8 last week at the Travelers. He’s striking the ball well but is second only to McCarthy over the last 20 rounds in Strokes Gained: Putting. With the state of his game and him being a hometown kid in Illinois who made his first PGA Tour starts at this event and finished T43 here in 2018, I love for him to stay hot and make noise this week.

One and Done Pick for John Deere Classic: Denny McCarthy

I can’t see myself looking to McCarthy at too many more tournaments moving forward and I love the spot for him at TPC Deere Run this week. I’ve already run through the majority of my reasoning, but I’m not afraid to double up on him and take him as my One and Done selection for the week.

John Deere Classic best bets

Every week, you can find more picks on our weekly golf betting show, Green on the Greens, hosted by BetSided. Check out this week’s picks for the John Deere Classic below before more of my best bets for the week.

Chez Reavie to finish Top 20 (+225)

Anyone following golf knows the drill with Chez Reavie. When the courses start to shorten up, we start to see him perform. So it shouldn’t come as a surprise that we’ve started to see that recently with four Top 27 finishes in his last five starts, a run that includes three Top 20 finishes and a Top 10. With his extreme accuracy off the tee combined with gaining 1.02 strokes per round tee-to-green over his last 20 and gaining on the greens, I love Reavie at good value for a Top 20 at the John Deere, something he did last year as well.

Patrick Rodgers to finish Top 20 (+150)

For all the Patrick Rodgers fans out there, now is the time to welcome newcomers onto the island. He’s made six of his last seven cuts and, among those made cuts, hasn’t finished worse than T32. The ball-striking has been good but the putter has been quite hot. Now he comes to TPC Deere Run where he’s finished T23, T43 and T2 in his last three starts at the event. For solid value for a player who could win this week and who has a hot putter, I love Rodgers for a Top 20 finish.

Adam Schenk to finish Top 10 (+500)

This is definitely a big swing for a Top 10 pick but it’s one that I can’t look away from. Schenk hasn’t been doing anything particularly special as of late, gaining just 0.36 strokes per round tee-to-green over his last 20. Yet, he’s still been T26 or better in two of his last three starts and, more importantly, finished T4 and T6 in the past two John Deere Classic events in 2021 and 2019. With that history and these odds, I just can’t look away from what he’s capable of, but you could play it safer for a Top 20 with still great value.

Longshot pick to win John Deere Classic: Sam Ryder (+12500)

It’s not been the best season for Sam Ryder to this point but he has flashed at moments and showed well enough last week with a T35 finish at the Travelers. Now he comes to a place where he’s made three straight cuts, including a second-place finish in 2018. These odds feel way too long for a player who can get hot and has a good track record in Silvis.

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