The No. 1 Purdue Boilermakers are at home on Sunday to take on the Michigan State Spartans in some Big Ten college basketball action.
The Boilermakers and big man Zach Edey are 9-1 in Big Ten play this season, but they have really struggled against the spread.
Purdue is just 8-13 ATS on the season, and the team is even worse as a big favorite, going just 3-10 ATS when favored by eight or more points. The Spartans have some quality wins this season, and they hung tough with Purdue at home earlier this season.
The Boilermakers pulled out a 64-63 win in that game, and we could see another low-scoring matchup between these teams on Sunday.
Let’s dive into the latest odds and a pick for this matchup:
Michigan State vs. Purdue odds, spread and total
Michigan State vs. Purdue prediction and pick
It’s never fun to bet an UNDER, especially with a low total like this game, but I think it’s the right play on Sunday.
First off, the Boilermakers are one of the best UNDER teams in the country, going 14-7 so far this season. Purdue plays at a slow pace (332nd in the country in adjusted tempo) and it has an elite defense, ranking 10th in opponent points per game.
The Spartans also slow the game down on offense, ranking 309th in the country in adjusted tempo.
The first matchup between these teams saw a high-scoring second half, yet it still went three points under the total for Sunday’s matchup. With the Boilermakers at home, there’s a chance they can get up enough where we don’t see a free-throw battle at the end of this game to push it over.
Even though this is a low total, Michigan State has only played 10 games that have gone above this number while the Boilermakers have played 12.
This is going to be a slow-paced rock fight that’s going to be won on the defensive end. Since I don’t trust Purdue to cover the spread, I’ll ride with the UNDER.
Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.