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One stat shows just how big a TNF win would be for Packers playoff hopes


The Packers are alive in the playoff hunt despite going on a recent five-game losing skid. A win on Thursday would be massive.

It’s not often that you can enter Week 11 at 4-6 and having gone on a 5-game losing skid in the meat of the season while keeping your postseason hopes alive. The Green Bay Packers have benefited massively from a dreary NFC this season which is keeping almost every team in the conference — not just the Packers — alive through 11 weeks.

Any team that pieces together a few wins can easily make a run for the postseason even if they’ve performed poorly to this point. With the Packers having Aaron Rodgers under center, they may be the team best positioned with a losing record to do so.

After a big win over the Dallas Cowboys last week, their Week 11 game is on short rest against the Tennessee Titans, and a win here would be massive to their playoff hopes. The Packers should be opportunistic on their home field to make it happen.

Stat model shows how important a TNF win would be

FiveThirtyEight’s NFL projection model gives the Packers just a 12 percent chance of making the postseason going into Week 11. A win tonight, though, would nearly double the Packers’ playoff chances, getting them to 20 percent. Looking forward, they have the Eagles in Week 12, and stringing consecutive wins in both Week 11 and 12 would do even more for the Packers, upping their playoff percentage to a whopping 40 percent.

One step at a time, though. The alternative outcome shows how important TNF is. If the Packers lose on Thursday, their playoff chances drop from 12 percent to five percent. A win against the Eagles the next week would bring them back up to 15 percent in this scenario.

That means that a win tonight is a 16 percent swing on chances to make the playoffs versus a loss, according to FiveThirtyEight’s model.

As always, it’s most important to take care of the issue right in front of you and for the Packers, that’s the Titans in Week 11. Doing so will help the Packers continue to turn the tide on this very bad season.



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